A mayoral candidate in a large metropolitan area has hired you to take a poll to determine the proportion of registered voters who plan to vote for him. He would like you to report a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error no more than 0.04. Whiat is the smallest sample size that will produce an interval with these specifications?

Respuesta :

Answer:

The smallest sample size that will produce an interval with these specifications is 601.

Step-by-step explanation:

In a sample with a number n of people surveyed with a probability of a success of [tex]\pi[/tex], and a confidence level of [tex]1-\alpha[/tex], we have the following confidence interval of proportions.

[tex]\pi \pm z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

In which

z is the zscore that has a pvalue of [tex]1 - \frac{\alpha}{2}[/tex].

The margin of error is:

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

95% confidence level

So [tex]\alpha = 0.05[/tex], z is the value of Z that has a pvalue of [tex]1 - \frac{0.05}{2} = 0.975[/tex], so [tex]Z = 1.96[/tex].

He would like you to report a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error no more than 0.04. What is the smallest sample size that will produce an interval with these specifications?

We have to find n for which M = 0.04.

We dont know the true proportion, so we use [tex]\pi = 0.5[/tex], which is when the smallest sample size needed will have it's largest value.

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.04 = 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.5*0.5}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.04\sqrt{n} = 1.96*0.5[/tex]

[tex]\sqrt{n} = \frac{1.96*0.5}{0.04}[/tex]

[tex](\sqrt{n})^2 = (\frac{1.96*0.5}{0.04})^2[/tex]

[tex]n = 600.25[/tex]

Rounding up

The smallest sample size that will produce an interval with these specifications is 601.